Comments on: Would You Settle for 500K or Go for a Million Dollars? http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/ Money Tips for a Better Life Fri, 25 May 2012 08:24:26 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: bill http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-8343 bill Fri, 01 Jun 2007 23:55:39 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-8343 A bird in the hand... you know how the rest of it goes. If caught up in the moment, I might go for the million too. A bird in the hand… you know how the rest of it goes. If caught up in the moment, I might go for the million too.

]]> By: Ben http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3756 Ben Fri, 20 Apr 2007 15:40:33 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3756 KMull, you're right it is all about the odds. Unfortunately most contestants on the show are at a disadvantage, they can't do the math in their heads and they have hundreds of people screaming "No Deal" at them. Luckily for us investors, we get to make decisions in the peace and quiet of our own homes with a spreadsheet in front of us :) KMull, you’re right it is all about the odds. Unfortunately most contestants on the show are at a disadvantage, they can’t do the math in their heads and they have hundreds of people screaming “No Deal” at them.

Luckily for us investors, we get to make decisions in the peace and quiet of our own homes with a spreadsheet in front of us :)

]]> By: KMull http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3684 KMull Thu, 19 Apr 2007 19:38:19 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3684 It is actually pretty mathematical. Expected return: ((Probability of outcome 1) x (Reward of outcome 1) + ((prb of 2) x (reward of 2)) + ... The game is all about timing. The first two rounds don't really matter, unless you knock out every single large number (over 100,000). As long as you have two or three left, then it is just timing. If $500,000 and 1 million are the only two left, the offer will be around $750,000. The banker tries to undersell you a bit, so probably around $738,000 or so. It's a coin flip. I take the offer. I'd rather have an additional ~250k than lose it trying to double it to a million. It is actually pretty mathematical. Expected return:

((Probability of outcome 1) x (Reward of outcome 1) + ((prb of 2) x (reward of 2)) + …

The game is all about timing. The first two rounds don’t really matter, unless you knock out every single large number (over 100,000). As long as you have two or three left, then it is just timing.

If $500,000 and 1 million are the only two left, the offer will be around $750,000. The banker tries to undersell you a bit, so probably around $738,000 or so. It’s a coin flip. I take the offer. I’d rather have an additional ~250k than lose it trying to double it to a million.

]]> By: Finance Findings For Tuesday, April 17, 2007 http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3543 Finance Findings For Tuesday, April 17, 2007 Tue, 17 Apr 2007 16:41:04 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3543 [...] Would You Settle for 500K or Go for a Million Dollars? [Money Smart Life] [...] [...] Would You Settle for 500K or Go for a Million Dollars? [Money Smart Life] [...]

]]> By: Weekend Personal Finance Review http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3427 Weekend Personal Finance Review Sun, 15 Apr 2007 22:56:25 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3427 [...] Money Smart Life has a question about Deal or No Deal. He presents a few situations and then asks if you’d go or not go. I spent a few minutes thinking of what I’d do mathematically, and I realized that I’m probably better off with a coin flip. I didn’t see a big enough statistical advantage to lead me one way or the other. [...] [...] Money Smart Life has a question about Deal or No Deal. He presents a few situations and then asks if you’d go or not go. I spent a few minutes thinking of what I’d do mathematically, and I realized that I’m probably better off with a coin flip. I didn’t see a big enough statistical advantage to lead me one way or the other. [...]

]]> By: Money Articles: Want To Know How To Double Your Money? Why Not Triple It? » Silicon Valley Blog About Money http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3338 Money Articles: Want To Know How To Double Your Money? Why Not Triple It? » Silicon Valley Blog About Money Sat, 14 Apr 2007 15:16:26 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3338 [...] Money Smart Life has Would You Settle For $500K Or Go For A Million Dollars? is all about getting to know what your financial risk profile is, as illustrated by the game show “Deal or No Deal.” Similarly, All Financial Matters asks Are You Logical When it Comes to Risk? I took JLP’s test and found I voted like everybody else did, when it came to taking a chance! [...] [...] Money Smart Life has Would You Settle For $500K Or Go For A Million Dollars? is all about getting to know what your financial risk profile is, as illustrated by the game show “Deal or No Deal.” Similarly, All Financial Matters asks Are You Logical When it Comes to Risk? I took JLP’s test and found I voted like everybody else did, when it came to taking a chance! [...]

]]> By: j&w http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3133 j&w Wed, 11 Apr 2007 13:38:19 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3133 I'd take the $500k of course, on the basis that if someone had walked up to me that morning and offered me a cheque for that amount, I'd say yes. But from what I've seen of it, the show at this point seems to select only colourful and wacky people, with similarly hysterical family (which makes it almost unwatchable to me) - the boring ordinary guy who'll walk with $50k doesn't appear on it any more. I’d take the $500k of course, on the basis that if someone had walked up to me that morning and offered me a cheque for that amount, I’d say yes. But from what I’ve seen of it, the show at this point seems to select only colourful and wacky people, with similarly hysterical family (which makes it almost unwatchable to me) – the boring ordinary guy who’ll walk with $50k doesn’t appear on it any more.

]]> By: Ben http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3111 Ben Wed, 11 Apr 2007 03:33:44 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3111 I tend to be more conservative myself. I'd probably have taken the 291K and used it for a mix of business ventures, stock market investments, and charity donations. I tend to be more conservative myself. I’d probably have taken the 291K and used it for a mix of business ventures, stock market investments, and charity donations.

]]> By: limeade http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3096 limeade Wed, 11 Apr 2007 00:40:27 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3096 If $500K or $1 Mil were the only choices, I'd take the $500K because it's a sure thing, and I could easily grow it to $1 Mil in a relatively short time period. -limeade If $500K or $1 Mil were the only choices, I’d take the $500K because it’s a sure thing, and I could easily grow it to $1 Mil in a relatively short time period.

-limeade

]]> By: Zachary http://moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/comment-page-1/#comment-3089 Zachary Tue, 10 Apr 2007 21:48:02 +0000 http://www.moneysmartlife.com/would-you-settle-for-500k-or-go-for-a-million-dollars/#comment-3089 Definitely take the $500K. For the same reason as Thomas: because you came with nothing! Definitely take the $500K. For the same reason as Thomas: because you came with nothing!

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